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The Delphi survey is a very specific procedure for collecting the opinions of experts and reaching a consensus.
Delphi survey: collecting experts and their knowledge
Information can be complex, confusing and sometimes quite uncertain. In order to nevertheless reach a consensus on what is true and how to proceed in certain subject areas, experts are needed. This is where the so-called Delphi method comes into play.
- Here, a selected group of experts are asked about a specific topic in several rounds. Through these multiple repetitions, the respondents can rethink their assessments and therefore arrive at well-thought-out results.
- The people with specialist knowledge are considered Delphi panelists. However, their summarized answers are not summarized under the respective name of the expert, but anonymized. This is to serve the objectivity.
- Due to the anonymity, each expert can express their own opinion and assessment independently of other respondents. This is to prevent mutual influence.
- The name of the method, Delphie, is derived from the ancient Greek city of Delphi – a declared center of divination. The Delphie method is also used to obtain well-founded forecasts and assessments – even if, of course, they are based on rational expert opinions and not on the wisdom of oracles.
- The Delphie method is used in many areas, be it in market research, for example to assess consumer behavior or product acceptance, or in the fields of technology development, health research or political consulting.
- The method is particularly useful when it comes to assessing future developments where objective data is lacking and the forecasts rely on expert knowledge.
How does a Delphi survey work?
The Delphi method usually follows a clearly structured process pattern, with the survey being conducted over several rounds.
- It all starts with the selection of experts. These are people who have in-depth knowledge and experience in the topic to be examined. These experts are invited to give their assessments.
- In the first round of questioning, the experts receive a detailed survey or questionnaire on the topic. The questions can include both closed and open-ended questions, allowing both quantitative and qualitative data to be collected. The experts provide their assessments, forecasts or opinions on the questions asked.
- After the first round is completed, the answers are anonymized and summarized. This reveals the main statements and insights of the experts. The aim is to provide an objective and complete representation of the different expert opinions.
- In the second round of questioning, the respondents receive a summary of the first round as well as the answers of the other panelists. They are now asked to review their original assessments and, if necessary, adjust them based on the new information. This re-questioning is intended to help correct possible misinterpretations.
- Possible further rounds of questioning: The Delphi method can be carried out over several rounds. Each new round serves to further refine the experts’ opinions by giving them the opportunity to reconsider and adjust their answers. In practice, two to three rounds are often sufficient to achieve a clear consensus opinion or a robust assessment.
- At the end of the Delphi survey, the final results are summarized and presented to the experts and the clients. The well-founded assessment is therefore based on the collective expertise of the respondents.
